Break Even Probability
Find the minimum probability required to profit after fees.
How it works
What to enter
- Price scale and market price: enter the price you would use as your reference.
- Optional bid and ask: enter both if you have them, then choose the reference price.
- Reference price: default to Ask if you want a conservative break-even threshold.
- Fee percent: enter the platform fee rate you expect to pay.
What the output means
- Break-even probability: the minimum probability estimate required to offset the fee assumptions, using a simplified model.
- If bid and ask are entered, you will also see the implied probability range and spread width.
Example
Market price 60 (0 to 100), fee 5% → break-even probability about 63% (simplified).
Tip
Break-even moves up when fees rise, and it becomes harder to justify trades when spreads are wide.