Guides & Tutorials
Bid, Ask, Mid: Why Last Traded Price Is Misleading (Use This Instead)
Last traded price often looks like the market price, but in prediction markets it can be stale, tiny, or off the executable quotes. This guide explains why last trade misleads, what to use instead (bid, ask, mid, and order book depth), and how to avoid hidden execution costs.
Read Guide →
Effective Spread and Realized Spread: Measuring Execution After the Fill
Quoted spreads are what you see. Effective and realized spread are what you actually paid. This guide explains effective spread vs realized spread, how to use mid price correctly, how price improvement shows up in the numbers, and why you must separate fees from microstructure costs.
Read Guide →
Settlement Rules: Where the Real Risk Hides
Execution costs are visible. Settlement risk is not. This guide explains how settlement rules and oracle design determine what you are really trading, how ambiguous outcomes create hidden risk, and a checklist for reading market rules like a professional.
Read Guide →
Disputes and Ambiguity: Red Flags in Market Wording and Resolution
Most disputes are predictable if you know what to look for. This guide lists the common wording red flags that create ambiguous outcomes, explains how disputes typically unfold, and shows how traders and platforms can reduce dispute risk before it becomes a trust crisis.
Read Guide →
Liquidity Checklist: How to Tell If a Market Is Tradable
Most prediction market mistakes are not about being wrong on direction. They are about trading a market that is not tradable at your size. This checklist shows how to evaluate liquidity, spreads, order book depth, fees, and execution risk before you enter.
Read Guide →
Maker vs Taker: How Fees Change Your Break-even
Maker taker pricing can quietly decide whether your edge is real. This guide explains what maker and taker mean in prediction markets, how maker taker fees change your all in price and break-even probability, and when paying taker fees is still the right choice.
Read Guide →
Slippage, Price Impact, Execution Risk: Why Good Forecasts Still Lose Money
Even with a correct forecast, you can lose money if execution is bad. This guide explains slippage, price impact, and execution risk in prediction markets, how liquidity and order choice drive these costs, and why market orders are the fastest way to turn a small edge into a negative EV trade.
Read Guide →
Fees vs Spread: The Two Costs Most Traders Mix Up
Trading costs in prediction markets come from two places: platform fees and the bid ask spread. This guide separates them cleanly, shows how they combine into all in cost, and explains why a market can look cheap on spread but still be expensive after fees.
Read Guide →
Expected Value and Break-even Probability: Costs Turn Beliefs into Math
Expected value is where prediction markets stop being opinions and start being math. This guide shows how EV relates to predicted probability and implied probability, why break-even probability is the only threshold that matters, and how fees, spreads, and execution change the trade you should actually take.
Read Guide →
Fair Price and Edge: Turning Beliefs into Trade Thresholds
A forecast is not a trade. A trade needs a threshold. This guide shows how to convert predicted probability into fair price, how to measure edge versus implied probability, and how to set a minimum edge that clears fees, spreads, and execution risk.
Read Guide →
Market Price to Implied Probability: Avoiding 100x Errors
Most pricing mistakes in prediction markets are not subtle. They are unit mistakes: 0-1 vs 0-100, cents vs dollars, percent vs probability. This guide shows the correct conversions, the fastest sanity checks, and how to compare your predicted probability to the market without creating fake edge.
Read Guide →
Odds, Log Odds, and Logit: One Concept, Three Views
Odds are the cleanest way to update beliefs. Log odds make updates additive. Logit maps probabilities onto that log odds scale. This guide shows how to convert between all three, why they matter for Bayes updates, and how to avoid common conversion mistakes in prediction markets.
Read Guide →
Bayes for Humans: Updating with Odds and Likelihood Ratios
Bayes is not about being fancy. It is about updating beliefs without overreacting. This guide explains priors, odds, likelihood ratios, and posteriors in plain language, then shows how to use Bayes thinking to build predicted probabilities that translate cleanly into fair price and break-even decisions.
Read Guide →
Calibration: What "Good Probabilities" Actually Means
Calibration is the difference between saying a number and earning the right to trust it. This guide explains what calibration is, how to test it with simple bins, how it relates to Brier score and log loss, and why miscalibration turns into bad pricing and negative EV in prediction markets.
Read Guide →
Confidence vs Probability: The Fastest Way to Get Miscalibrated
Confidence is a feeling. Probability is a measurable claim. This guide shows the common ways people confuse them, how overconfidence and underconfidence appear in real forecasts, and how to anchor your numbers so they survive scoring, costs, and reality.
Read Guide →
Predicted Probability: How to Build a Forecast You Can Trust
Predicted probability is only useful if it is built from a clear question, a base rate, disciplined updates, and honest uncertainty. This guide shows a simple workflow you can repeat, then connects it to implied probability, fair price, and break-even math in prediction markets.
Read Guide →