Edge vs Market Price

How it works

What to enter

• Your probability estimate: your forecast for the event (percent or decimal).
• Price scale and market price: enter the market price you want to compare against.
• Optional bid and ask: enter both if you have them, then pick a reference price (Mid, Ask, Bid).
• Optional fee percent: enter the platform fee rate if you know it. If not, leave it at 0 to see the fee-free baseline.

What the output means

• Implied probability: what the market price translates to.
• Edge: your estimate minus implied probability. Positive means your estimate is higher, negative means lower.
• Break-even probability (simplified): the minimum probability needed to cover the entered fee assumptions.

Example

Your probability 60%, market price 55%, fee 0% → edge +5 percentage points.

Tip

If you want a conservative comparison and you have bid and ask, use Ask as the reference for long comparisons and Bid as the reference for short comparisons.