Probability to Fair Price
Determine the fair trading price for a given probability belief.
How it works
What to enter
- Probability format: choose Percent (0 to 100) or Decimal (0 to 1).
- Your probability estimate: enter your forecast for the event.
- Price scale: choose the output scale you want (0 to 100 or 0 to 1).
Example
Probability 55% → fair price 55 (or 0.55).
Tip
This is your indifference price. If the market price is higher than your fair price, the market implies higher probability than you do, and vice versa.